Thailand’s Thaksin plans a return amid rumours of a ‘super-deal’ placing Move Forward in opposition
- Ahead of the ex-PM’s planned return, the more radical but embattled Move Forward Party is now the kingdom’s dominant pro-democracy force
- The Pheu Thai party will be challenged to break from Move Forward, while sustaining as little lasting damage as possible to its pro-democracy brand
The ex-prime minister fled into self-exile in 2008, spending his time in London, Dubai and Hong Kong, as court cases stacked up against him, two years after a coup toppled his elected government.
But in under two weeks, Thaksin – Thailand’s only civilian leader to finish a term and then be re-elected – appears poised to finally return home.
Approve Pita as PM or ‘get out’, Bangkok protesters tell Thai senators
Experts say Thaksin, aged 74 and facing 10 years in jail, is unlikely to serve much – if any – jail time, speculating that the billionaire who was once the bane of the establishment may have made a “super-deal” to return with his one-time conservative enemies.
That is likely to see Move Forward shunted into opposition, despite winning the May election.
Whatever political machinations lie ahead, Thaksin’s presence will add a headline-hogging, unpredictable new dynamic to an already complicated situation.
What happens next?
After years of false starts, Thaksin’s return seems real.
For his part, Thaksin on Friday tweeted a link to a TikTok video by Thai indie rocker Sek Loso, promising to perform on stage together once he returns.
He is due to land at Bangkok’s Don Mueng airport, where a horde of media and political supporters are likely to seek to greet the most significant person in recent Thai political history. The tycoon would be subject to the judicial process upon his return, deputy national police chief Surachate Hakparn said.
“The police will conduct their duties normally when the plane lands. He will have to go to court and listen to what they decide,” Surachate said.
The court is expected to order him to go straight to jail.
Thaksin faces 10 years in prison for three convictions made in absentia, including abuse of power and corruption, which he says were all politically motivated.
What are the risks?
Thaksin nostalgia runs deep in the upcountry ‘Red Shirt’ rural heartlands, where he is adored for his economic policies that for the first time raised rural incomes and addressed the changing aspirations of the poor. Their votes powered him to two election wins in 2001 and then 2005, which rattled the Bangkok establishment.
But he is also reviled by conservatives. Many prominent politicians have spent two decades earning their reputations by vilifying him and his family for toxifying Thai politics and society with corruption and nepotism.
In the hothouse of Thai politics, where grudges, recriminations and violence stalk the scene, there are inevitable security risks for a high-profile, yet divisive, figure.
In her Instagram post, his daughter Paetongtarn, who is assuming the family political mantel at the top of Pheu Thai, conceded to worries over his “safety” but respected her father’s decision to come back.
What is the political impact?
Move Forward’s emergence as the nation’s biggest party is the most serious challenge to the conservative establishment since Thaksin’s breakout election in 2001.
Experts say Move Forward’s calls to de-monopolise the economy and reform the royal defamation law, which shields the monarchy from criticism, are unprecedented and have rattled the ‘old powers’ of the generals, business elite and palace who hold the tethers on Thai democracy.
Meanwhile, the party’s young supporters have little memory of – and even less deference to – Thaksin, or the phalanx of former generals and ageing politicos who head the conservative parties and populate the unelected Senate.
Pheu Thai wanted a landslide of 270-300 lower house seats but were pushed into second place with just 141 seats, losing many of their upcountry vote banks to Move Forward.
The party’s diluted power may make it a more palatable partner in a conservative alliance, which then freezes Move Forward into opposition.
Thaksin Shinawatra returning to Thailand from exile on August 10: daughter
Pheu Thai’s conundrum is finding a way to break from Move Forward while sustaining as little lasting damage as possible to its pro-democracy brand.
The deal allegedly allows for Thaksin’s return and for Pheu Thai to join a coalition including Bhumjaithai and even the former military-aligned governing party of Phalang Pracharat, while Move Forward would slip into opposition.
A joint session of parliament is due to hold another round of voting on August 4, three weeks after Pita Limjaroenrat of Move Forward was blocked by the military-appointed Senate from becoming Thailand’s next prime minister. Until then, Thailand remains without a political leader or a new government, while the party that won the most votes (14 million for Move Forward) appears least likely to be in power.