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Kim Jong-un looks on during the test-fiiring of a new-type of surface-to-sea missile at an undisclosed location in North Korea on Wednesday. Photo: KCNA via KNS/AFP

This Week in Asia Politics

Diplomacy’s untimely death leaves Koreas on ‘extremely bleak’ brink — amid fears of a Trump redux

Dialogue between North and South Korea has given way to fiery rhetoric and mutual threats of destruction that neither side seems inclined to walk back
Tensions are only expected to ratchet higher as the year progresses, analysts say, especially if a second Trump presidency forces Seoul to go it alone

Korean peninsula

Park Chan-kyong

Published: 9:30am, 18 Feb 2024

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As a perilous game of brinkmanship plays out on the Korean peninsula, a conspicuous lack of diplomacy to defuse escalating tensions is threatening to boil over into direct conflict between North and South.

This absence of diplomatic initiatives heightens the risk of further destabilisation, analysts say, as hostilities intensify over a string of weapons tests, military drills, and mutual threats of destruction.

Both Koreas appear to have forsaken the pursuit of dialogue in favour of fiery, uncompromising rhetoric, said Hosaka Yuji, a political-science professor at Sejong University in Seoul, with South Korean president Yoon Suk-yeol’s hardline stance only feeding into Pyongyang’s aggression.

South Korea’s conservative President Yoon Suk-yeol has taken a hardline stance on the North since his election in 2022. Photo: South Korea Presidential Office via AP

In his latest salvo, North Korean leader Kim Jong-un on February 8 threatened to “wipe out” hostile forces if they “attempt to touch the dignity of our nation and people even by a hair’s breadth”, stressing the country’s “combat readiness”.

Kim has now designated South Korea as the North’s “principal enemy” and defined it as a separate, hostile country – in a significant departure from Pyongyang’s traditional view of its rival as occupied territory.

As part of the shift, the North has also abolished government agencies responsible for inter-Korean exchanges and dialogue, with the constitution being altered to say Pyongyang’s forces should “completely occupy, subjugate, and reclaim” the South in the event of war.

As North Korea slams Japan troops’ shrine trip, Seoul and China stay silent

North Korea on Wednesday unleashed a volley of cruise missiles off its east coast – the fifth such barrage in a month – as it continues to flex its military muscle with weapons tests spanning ICBM test-firings and the successful launch of its first spy satellite.

In response, South Korea and the United States have been strengthening their joint nuclear deterrence capabilities and are preparing for the return of their massive annual military drills next month.

A senior Russian diplomat blamed such “aggressive and provocative actions” for raising tensions on the Korean peninsula, accusing the US and its allies of practising “decapitation strikes” against the North.

Kim’s claim that he has the legal right to annihilate South Korea “clearly illustrates the sharply increased risks of a direct military clash”, Ivan Zhelokhovtsev, director of the Russian foreign ministry’s first Asia department, told Moscow’s state-run RIA Novosti in an interview published last Sunday.

“However, his warnings should be viewed through the prism of dangerous steps by the United States and its allies,” he said. “In the current circumstances, Pyongyang is forced to take reasonable steps … protecting against any external attacks on its sovereignty.”

‘Extremely bleak’ prospects

Yoon’s uncompromising approach towards the North contrasts sharply with that of his liberal predecessor and comes as something of a gift to Kim, who is using it to justify his own iron-fisted rule and building up of a nuclear arsenal, according to Sejong University’s Hosaka.

“Kim is pleased with the current situation, as he sees the Yoon government inadvertently benefiting him,” Hosaka said.

At this point, attempting to force Pyongyang to abandon its nuclear weapons programme through further sanctions was “wishful thinking”, said Lim Eul-chul, a North Korean studies professor at Kyungnam University, as the Kim regime fears complying would mean its own downfall.

“Under the Yoon administration, prospects for reducing tensions between the two sides seem extremely bleak”, he said.

02:43

North Korean leader Kim Jong-un says he has lawful right to annihilate South Korea

If anything, the North’s provocations are only likely to intensify this year amid next month’s joint military drills, the South’s parliamentary polls set for April and November’s US presidential election, said Leif-Eric Easley, an international-studies professor at Ewha Woman’s University in Seoul.

“Pyongyang might then seek concessions to de-escalate, but a military clash could occur in the meantime as both Koreas are promising to escalate quickly in attempts to deter the other side,” he said.

Easley said North Korea’s missile launches typically serve a range of purposes, from developing its military capabilities, to bolstering the regime’s domestic political legitimacy and sending signals to the wider world.

“By firing so many cruise missiles, the Kim regime is going beyond efforts at deterrence and may be trying to portray the South Korean conservative president Yoon Suk-yeol and President Biden’s policies as failures ahead of coming elections,” he said.

South Korean KF-16 jet fighters fly in formation over the Korean peninsula as the country’s air force stages air defence drills last year. Photo: Yonhap/dpa

Yoon has repeatedly called the North “irrational” in recent weeks and stressed the need for the South to bolster its defence readiness when faced with a foe bent on developing nuclear weapons at the cost of people’s livelihoods.

Such heated exchanges have occurred in the past only for the two sides to return to dialogue, but Political-Science Professor Yang Moo-jin of the University of North Korean Studies said this pattern looked unlikely to repeat this time.

“It is regrettable that the three principles in inter-Korean agreements – non-intervention in internal affairs, mutual respect, and acknowledgement of ideological differences – have been forsaken,” he said.

Daniel Pinkston, an international-relations professor at Troy University in Seoul, said the two sides were stuck in a deadlock “with no real possibility of cooperation”.

“I think the areas for cooperation are very limited to things such as conflict avoidance, at least for the intermediate term,” he said.

Fears about Trump

By intensifying its threats against the South, Kim was likely looking “to gain leverage in a possible bargain with the incoming US administration”, according to Park Won-gon, a professor of North Korean studies at Ewha University in Seoul.

However, the chance of an attack actually occurring was “practically zero” as “North Korea maintains its stance that it would not undertake a pre-emptive attack against the South,” he was quoted by The Korea Herald as saying. “There is no reason for South Korea and the US to strike North Korea first.”

Still, concerns are growing that a second Donald Trump presidency would mean a weakened US commitment to defending the South, adding to calls for it to arm itself with its own nuclear weapons.

A survey conducted in December and January by researchers at Gallup Korea showed seven out of 10 Koreans supporting nuclear armament and six in 10 saying they did not believe the US would use nuclear weapons in the event of a crisis on the Korean peninsula.

In the face of North Korea’s escalating threats, the mere suggestion that we could develop nuclear weapons could serve as a deterrent

Cheong Seong-Chang, Sejong Institute researcher

“In the face of North Korea’s escalating threats, the mere suggestion that we could develop nuclear weapons could serve as a deterrent against the North,” said Cheong Seong-Chang, a senior researcher at the Sejong Institute think tank.

Yoon rejected the idea of obtaining nuclear weapons in a rare interview with public broadcaster KBS this month, saying that complying with the international Non Proliferation Treaty on nuclear weapons was more in the country’s interest.

But he did note that “it wouldn’t take long” for the South to develop its own nuclear arsenal, if needed, given its advanced science and technology.

North Korea has been closing ranks with China and Russia since the collapse of the second Trump-Kim summit in Hanoi in 2019, analysts say, as Pyongyang now believes Washington will continue with hostile policies no matter who is US president.

Trump may make North Korea deal, embolden China, if he wins election: Bolton

“I don’t think Trump will return to the presidency, but if he were to return to the White House, I believe authoritarian leaders around the world would be emboldened to act aggressively to address their grievances against the liberal world order,” said Troy University’s Pinkston. “I think the risk of conflict in East Asia and elsewhere would rise significantly.”

Hosaka and Kyungnam University’s Lim agreed that diplomacy will prove difficult in the near term.

“Trump would have little means to help Kim as long as the nuclear issue remains unsolved, although the US and North Korea might be groping for ways to engage in limited dialogue,” Lim said.

Hosaka, meanwhile, predicted that a second Trump presidency would be more focused on Beijing than Pyongyang.

“Improving relations between the US and North Korea will remain difficult as the US seeks to contain [mainland] China by binding Japan, Taiwan and South Korea in a defence alliance,” he said.