Prabowo’s victory was largely attributed to Widodo’s tacit support for his candidacy, including political manoeuvring to secure his son’s nomination as Prabowo’s running mate, and allegations that he directed state officials to distribute government welfare resources to procure votes for Prabowo.

Despite this, analysts say Widodo may not get a significant political position when Prabowo takes office, leading him to look towards making other arrangements to consolidate his power.

Widodo has been a member of the ruling Indonesian Democratic Party of Struggle (PDI-P) for two decades, but his relationship with the party and its chairwoman, Megawati Sukarnoputri, soured after he backed Prabowo and his son instead of the PDI-P’s own presidential candidate, Ganjar Pranowo.

Given that, switching over to the Golkar Party – which is set to secure either first or second place in the legislative vote based on preliminary results – potentially presents an ideal opportunity for Widodo to both wield influence and protect his interests against “those who might seek to go after him … including the PDI-P, which certainly has an axe to grind with him”, Wilson said.

Golkar, which was the political party of the late dictator Suharto and the ruling party during his New Order regime until its fall in 1998, has made efforts in recent years to rebrand itself as a party with a more populist orientation. It will convene its national congress to elect a new chair in December.

“[Golkar] can see the value in grabbing Jokowi now because it can capture the momentum that he has had as president,” said Wilson, referring to the highly popular president by his nickname.

Recognising the potential decline in his power and popularity post-presidency, observers say Widodo understands the necessity of swiftly securing a strong political vehicle, possibly through a snap election for Golkar’s party chairmanship before his October departure.

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While there might be internal resistance from other senior figures who are vying for the leadership, as well as rules requiring the party’s chair to have a minimum five-year of tenure as a cadre, Widodo has shown he is not afraid of exercising his influence to circumvent such constraints, Wilson said.

“Golkar could be a whole new political enterprise to consolidate dynasty-building [for Widodo], which the party doesn’t appear to have a problem with, as long as it doesn’t displace other dynasties or oligarchs in the party,” he added.

If Widodo is unable to secure the chairmanship of Golkar, he might look into assuming an advisory role within the party, according to Dedi Dinarto, lead Indonesia analyst at public policy advisory firm Global Counsel.

That way, he would still be “positioning himself on par among the party’s top brass”, and remain “relevant in politics”, Dedi said.

03:09

Prabowo Subianto declares victory in Indonesian election as early counts give him 58% of votes

Prabowo Subianto declares victory in Indonesian election as early counts give him 58% of votes

Building a dynasty

Widodo has been accused by critics of leveraging his influence over state institutions to pave the legal path for his son Gibran Rakabuming Raka to become Prabowo’s running mate, in a bid to build a political dynasty.

While dynasties are not uncommon in the country’s political sphere, the president received flak from activists and academics who viewed his methods as undemocratic.

Gibran, 36, who has served as the mayor of Solo since 2021, was able to join Prabowo’s ticket after the Constitutional Court, then led by Widodo’s brother-in-law, issued a controversial ruling that allowed candidates to be exempted from the minimum age requirement of 40, if they had previously been elected to office.

But according to Wilson, Gibran might not be able to do much to secure his father’s legacy in office as he could turn out to be “a complete lame-duck as vice-president, as vice-presidents tend to be in Indonesia”.

There has also been speculation that Gibran could take on the chairmanship of Golkar. While he has so far denied the rumours, it would be another way for him to obtain power through a strong party outside his role as vice-president.

Meanwhile, Widodo’s son-in-law and the current mayor of Medan, Bobby Nasution, last week said he would run in the North Sumatra gubernatorial election in November. Golkar threw its support behind the 32-year-old following his announcement.

Also last week, Widodo’s youngest son, Kaesang Pangarep, and his wife, Erina Gudono, said they would contest the coming regional elections.

Kaesang took the helm of the Indonesian Solidarity Party (PSI) in September. A young progressive party, the PSI has a small base of support and appears unlikely to obtain the minimum 4 per cent of the legislative vote required to secure a seat in parliament.

More political moves by Widodo’s sons are expected, observers say, and they will continue to benefit from his support while he is still president.

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Despite the criticisms levelled against Widodo for his perceived undemocratic actions during the election, the president has thus far managed to avoid any significant political backlash or damage to his popularity, which has seen him earn approval ratings of over 80 per cent during his last year in office.

Ultimately, however, Dedi argued that Widodo was still counting on maintaining his strong relationship with Prabowo to hold sway over the country’s next administration.

Their relationship will determine “whether Prabowo is amenable to accommodating Jokowi’s request to appoint several of his confidants to the cabinet … that way, he would have an indirect influence on the policymaking process under Prabowo’s administration”, Dedi said.