Are the Philippines’ Marcos and Duterte families set to ‘break up’ over South China Sea and other rows?
- President Ferdinand Marcos Jnr has expressed outrage over a ‘secret agreement’ on the South China Sea that threatens the Philippines’ sovereignty
- His choice of three caretakers while he was away in the US signals his ‘eroded trust’ in VP Sara Duterte-Carpio, a political veteran says
His decision was relayed by Presidential Communications Office Chief Secretary Cheloy Garafil to reporters via text message, in which Duterte-Carpio was listed as “chair” caretaker and “assisted” by presidential Executive Secretary Lucas Bersamin and Agrarian Reform Secretary Conrado Estrella III.
“We don’t know, it was a secret agreement. We don’t know anything about it. There is no documentation, no record.”
Barry Gutierrez, who was a spokesman of former vice-president Leni Robredo, said: “I think the break-up [between the Marcos and Duterte families] has already happened. What we’re witnessing now is simply the forced politeness. I expect this facade to crack and the angry screaming to start soon.”
Gutierrez told This Week in Asia that the two families’ relations had “almost completely eroded” as Marcos Jnr’s appointment of three caretakers in his absence was “a very public message that VP Sara does not enjoy the same level of trust she once did within the administration”.
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Marcos Jnr did not need to be briefed on a matter that was publicly known to be the Duterte administration’s policy, Roque Jnr said. “He’s horrified about something he doesn’t know? He’s really funny.”
The former congressman argued the president was “deflecting [public opinion] away from issues” that have affected his popularity such as inflation but declined to comment about relations between the two clans.
Duterte’s China stance
Political veterans told This Week in Asia that the latest developments were further signs of the irreconcilable differences between the two families.
“I think there is, and has been, a real difference in foreign policy positioning between Marcos Jnr and Duterte,” Gutierrez said.
“Marcos Jnr was always going to cleave closer to our traditional Western allies in contrast to Duterte’s pivot to China. That said, public expressions of ‘horror’ in politics always have some element of theatre to them.
“Marcos Jnr is drawing a line between himself and Duterte regarding the West Philippine Sea issue. It doesn’t hurt that a significant majority of Filipinos support a US alliance to counter Chinese aggression in the WPS,” he said.
As Duterte-Carpio remains “fairly popular”, Marcos Jnr could not just boot her out from his cabinet, according to Gutierrez.
Gutierrez said the Dutertes were unwilling to say anything that might even be “remotely construed” as criticism against Beijing. “The question must be asked, is this reluctance due to some form of benefit they are receiving from China?”
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Former senator Antonio Trillanes believes “China is helping” the Duterte family in political matters.
The alliance between the two families “unofficially broke up” a year ago after Duterte-Carpio abruptly resigned as chair of the Lakas-Christian Muslim Democrats and her close ally Gloria Macapagal Arroyo was removed as deputy speaker over suspicions that she was trying to unseat the president’s cousin and House Speaker Martin Romualdez, said Trillanes.
University of the Philippines political science professor Jean Franco also noted that the bond between the clans was now “strained” but “civil”, citing a recent trip when First Lady Marie Louise “Liza” Araneta Marcos ignored Duterte-Carpio when the vice-president was waiting in line to say goodbye to the Marcoses.
The situation would become much clearer when candidates stated their intention to run in next year’s congressional and local elections, including those aligned with the Marcoses and Dutertes, Franco said.